• Latest
  • Trending
  • All
  • Startups
  • Funding
  • Sponsored
wcms

COVID-19: Differing Impact of the Pandemic on Major African Economies (GDP)

8 months ago
Investing in Africa - techbuild

5 Things I’ve learned about Investing in Africa – Tony Chen

2 hours ago
U-Report - techbuild

U-Report: Digital Access, Education are key concerns for young Africans

2 hours ago
Founder Institute
online trading - techbuild

Online Trading: What to look for in a Broker

10 hours ago
startups - techbuild

5 Reasons Startups fail in Nigeria

12 hours ago
54gene - techbuild

54gene deepens Precision Medicine for Africans, opens state of the art Scientific Research laboratory in Lagos, Nigeria

15 hours ago
Ideas to Business Program - techbuild

Afrilabs backs Wennovation Hub Ideas to Business Program for Nigerian Female Founders

16 hours ago
covax

COVAX: Africa requires Timely access to Safe and Effective COVID-19 vaccines

1 day ago
adesina

UK-Africa Investment Conference: ‘Africa is the world’s next business frontier’ – Akinwumi Adesina

1 day ago
Wari - techbuild

Wari partners Lycaremit to facilitate Cross-border Remittance

1 day ago
Biden - techbuild

Opinion: Positioning Africa at the forefront of the Biden Administration

1 day ago
techbuild.africa - techbuild

techbuild.africa opens Application for Content Writers

1 day ago
Legal Lens - techbuild

Legal Lens is saving Cost on Legal Fees for South Africans

2 days ago
Founder Institute Founder Institute Founder Institute
  • Home
  • About
  • Partners
  • Advertise
  • Contact
  • Signup to receive updates
  • en English
    en Englishfr Frenchar Arabicsw Swahilipt Portuguesede Germanes Spanishzh-CN Chinese (Simplified)
Innovation | Start-ups | Funding | Tech Blog in Africa
Advertisement
  • Home
  • Startups
  • Funding
  • Women Tech
  • Hubs
  • News
  • Interviews
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Startups
  • Funding
  • Women Tech
  • Hubs
  • News
  • Interviews
No Result
View All Result
Innovation | Start-ups | Funding | Tech Blog in Africa
No Result
View All Result
Home General

COVID-19: Differing Impact of the Pandemic on Major African Economies (GDP)

Editor by Editor
25th May 2020
in General
wcms

wcms

While the pandemic’s economic impact—alongside the oil-price shock—will be serious right across the continent, it will be felt differently in different countries.

For example, our analysis suggests that the following impacts would occur in Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya:

Nigeria

Across all scenarios, Nigeria is facing a likely economic contraction. In the least worst-case scenario (contained outbreak), Nigeria’s GDP growth could decline from 2.5 percent to -3.4 percent in 2020—in other words, a decline of nearly six percentage points.

That would represent a reduction in GDP of approximately $20 billion, with more than two-thirds of the direct impact coming from oil-price effects, given Nigeria’s status as a major oil exporter.

In scenarios in which the outbreak is not contained, Nigeria’s GDP growth rate could fall to -8.8 percent, representing a reduction in GDP of some $40 billion.

The biggest driver of this loss would be a reduction in consumer spending in food and beverages, clothing, and transport.

South Africa

Across all scenarios, South Africa is facing a likely economic contraction. Under the contained-outbreak scenario, GDP growth could decline from 0.8 percent to -2.1 percent.

This would represent a reduction in GDP of some $10 billion, with about 40 percent of that stemming from supply-chain import disruptions, which will impact manufacturing, metals and mining in particular.

There will also be major impact on tourism and consumption.

However, as South Africa is an oil importer, this impact will get cushioned by lower oil prices.

In scenarios in which the outbreak is not contained, South Africa’s GDP growth could fall to -8.3 percent, representing a loss to GDP of some $35 billion.

This impact would get driven by disruptions in household and business spending on transport, food and beverages, and entertainment, as well as prolonged pressure on exports.

South Africa’s recent sovereign-credit downgrade is likely to exacerbate this outlook.

Kenya

In two out of four scenarios, Kenya is facing a likely economic contraction.

Under the contained-outbreak scenario, GDP growth could decline from 5.2 percent (after accounting for the 2020 locust invasion) to 1.9 percent—representing a reduction in GDP of $3 billion.

The biggest impacts in terms of loss to GDP are reductions in household and business spending (about 50 percent), disruption to supply chain for key inputs in machinery and chemicals (about 30 percent), and tourism (about 20 percent).

In scenarios in which the outbreak is not contained, Kenya’s GDP growth rate could fall to -5 percent, representing a loss to GDP of $10 billion. As in Nigeria, disruption of consumer spend would be the biggest driver of this loss.

This publication originally appeared on McKinsey


Featured Image: ilo.org


Don’t miss important articles during the week. Subscribe to cfamedia weekly digest for updates.

Related Posts

Investing in Africa - techbuild
General

5 Things I’ve learned about Investing in Africa – Tony Chen

2 hours ago
U-Report - techbuild
General

U-Report: Digital Access, Education are key concerns for young Africans

2 hours ago
online trading - techbuild
General

Online Trading: What to look for in a Broker

10 hours ago
startups - techbuild
General

5 Reasons Startups fail in Nigeria

12 hours ago

SIGNUP FOR UPDATES

RECENT

  • 5 Things I’ve learned about Investing in Africa – Tony Chen
  • U-Report: Digital Access, Education are key concerns for young Africans
  • Online Trading: What to look for in a Broker
  • 5 Reasons Startups fail in Nigeria
  • 54gene deepens Precision Medicine for Africans, opens state of the art Scientific Research laboratory in Lagos, Nigeria

PREVIOUS

Join Founder Institute Join Founder Institute Join Founder Institute
ADVERTISEMENT
Innovation | Start-ups | Funding | Tech Blog in Africa

© 2013-2021 techbuild.africa. All Rights Reserved.

  • About
  • Contact
  • Privacy
  • Sitemap
  • Terms of Service

Follow us

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Startups
  • Funding
  • Women Tech
  • Hubs
  • News
  • Interviews

© 2013-2021 techbuild.africa. All Rights Reserved.

en English
en Englishfr Frenchar Arabicsw Swahilipt Portuguesede Germanes Spanishzh-CN Chinese (Simplified)
This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this website you are giving consent to cookies being used. Visit our Privacy and Cookie Policy.